|
In a quiet week for housing data, we're
reflecting on an interesting statistic
that we are able to put together
using Housing Intelligence Pro. In
looking at the annualized share of
all home sales captured by different types
of transactions, there are a few interesting
turning points that stand out.
Back in 2005, your garden variety resale
transaction accounted for more than 80
percent of all home sales. By November
of 2006, that had
slipped slightly
to 78 percent,
while new homes
accounted for
nearly 20 percent
of all transactions
(a peak share).
Just over two years
later in January
of 2009, the newhome
share had
slumped to 14 percent, and starting in
that month there were more REO sales in
the preceding 12 month period than new
homes sold. So for the last one year and
a half, banks have sold more houses than
homebuilders have.
In broader economic news, stocks
rebounded during the week of July
16, driven by optimism over corporate
earnings while buyers took advantage of
recent lows as a buying opportunity. The
blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Index
closed with its seventh straight positive
session on July 14, while the broader
S&P 500 Index declined slightly to snap a
six-session winning streak. However, the
market took a breather on July 15 with all
|
three major indices down about 0.5 percent
in afternoon trading.
Fed meeting minutes released on July
14 showed that expectations for economic
growth may be slower than previously
anticipated. Nevertheless, the Fed still
expects the economy to expand by 3.0
percent to 3.5 percent in 2010 and by 3.5
percent to 4.2 percent next year. There
were some concerns regarding inflation
going forward due to the size of the
Federal Reserve's
balance sheet.
However, concern
was also voiced
about the risk of
deflation given the
effects of the recent
woes in Europe
along with the
sustained high levels
of unemployment
domestically.
In the week ending July 10, first-time
jobless claims fell by 29,000 from the
previous week to a seasonally-adjusted
figure of 454,000. This is the second
straight week that initial unemployment
claims have declined while reaching
their lowest levels since August 2008.
While first-time jobless claims still remain
relatively high, declines in recent weeks --
despite the loss of thousands of temporary
Census jobs -- is a positive sign.
National average mortgage rates
remained unchanged from the previous
week, at an all-time low of 4.57 percent in
the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey
released weekly by Freddie Mac on July 15.
Mortgage rates have not posted a weekly
increase in the past four weeks.
|
Finally, in the week ending July 9, the
MBA's seasonally-adjusted purchase
index declined 3.14 percent from the
previous week and was down 36.9
percent, compared to the same time last
year; this is the fourth straight week that
the purchase index has declined. The
purchase index is now at its lowest levels
since December 1996, and it has also
posted declines in nine out of the past
10 weeks following the expiration of the
federal homebuyer tax credit.
Jonathan Dienhart is the director of
published research for HWMI. He may be
contacted at jdienhart@ hanleywood.com.
FAST FACTS
- Since January 2009, banks have sold more homes than builders.
- Stocks recently rebounded during the week of July 15, while buyers took advantage of recent lows as a buying opportunity.
- National average mortgage rates remained unchanged at an all-time low of 4.57 percent.
|
|
