2025 Forecast vs. Actual Housing Market Report Card
On March 27, 2026, John Burns Research & Consulting announced its 2025 forecast report card, comparing its original thesis to how the year actually played out nationally. Mortgage rates were exactly 6.6%, as predicted, and the expected slowdown of new construction proved accurate.
New home sales were forecasted to be flat year-over-year (YOY), with the actual coming in at -1%. Single-family starts were expected -3% YOY versus the actual -7% YOY. The same demand-side conditions that weighed on new home sales also pointed to a pullback in construction activity, which the land market research confirmed.
Construction costs declined YOY in the second half of 2025 for the first time in John Burns’ homebuilder survey history since 2013. Soft demand and excess new home supply reduced pricing pressure across the construction cost chain, with relief primarily coming from the labor side as trades competed for less work. Builders responded by cutting spec starts and pulling back on new construction to recalibrate to a weaker demand environment.
Looking ahead, the 2026 outlook is predicting another muted year in housing.
