NAHB releases population growth and housing supply data
According to the latest Vintage 2025 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. population growth slowed notably, with the nation expanding by just 0.5% in 2025. This was roughly half the pace of the prior year. The deceleration was primarily driven by a sharp decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, while natural change remained relatively stable.
Population gains remained concentrated in the South and parts of the West, while many areas in the Midwest and Northeast experienced slower growth or population declines.
At the county level, population growth slowed across much of the country. Among the nation’s 3,143 counties and the District of Columbia, the majority experienced decelerating population gains in 2025. Net Domestic Migration has become the most visible driver of county-level divergence. Population flows continue to shift away from the largest and most expensive counties toward smaller and less densely populated areas.
Across metropolitan areas, the relationship between population growth and single-family building permits is both positive and statistically strong. With an R² of 0.6248, population change alone explains roughly 62% of the variation in permit activity, reinforcing the role of demographic growth as a primary driver of housing supply.
