Housing Economy

Latest news in the housing economy

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  • Takeaways from the current housing economy

    Takeaways from the current housing economy

    The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies released its annual State of the Nation’s Housing report, offering an overview of the current housing market. Many indicators show that housing market activity remained flat in early 2026. New home sales levels remained relatively unchanged, rental retention rates increased and new occupancies declined. Construction saw a slight decrease of 1% over the past year. Key takeaways from the report include subdued activity, weakening demand, and sidelined potential homebuyers.

    The current weakness in housing demand is a direct result of several underlying economic drivers and a decreasing employment growth rate.

    With many U.S. residents burdened by high housing costs, an increasing number of state and local governments are taking action to increase housing production.

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  • May 2026 Luxury Housing Market Report

    May 2026 Luxury Housing Market Report

    Luxury home prices across the U.S. reached $1,283,432 in May 2026, despite year-over-year declines continuing at -1.4%. The pace of annual softening has pulled back considerably from the 5%-plus drops seen in early 2025, suggesting an uptick in the national luxury housing market.

    Among tracked luxury metros, Minneapolis and Boise City, Idaho, have fully surpassed their pandemic-era peaks as of February, at 5% and 4.2%, respectively. The composition of the top 10 luxury markets was unchanged from April, with the same 10 appearing in slightly different order.

    Year over year, Naples-Marco Island, Fla., at 4.3%, and Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla., at 3.2%, were the only markets on the list with positive annual price growth.

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  • June 2026 Housing Market Forecast

    June 2026 Housing Market Forecast

    The National Association of REALTORS released an analysis forecasting the housing market dynamics in June, including sales, inventory and buying trends. The analysis cited various factors, called seasonality trends, that influence the housing market and compared the current market conditions to previous seasonality trends to predict the June 2026 housing forecast.

    The analysis found that existing-home sales typically rise by 8.2% during the month, reaching their highest level of the year on average. The beginning of the summer marks a distinct shift in the housing market, characterized by the end of the school year for most localities, additional daylight and consistently warm weather. These conditions provide more flexibility for potential buyers to view a wider range of open listings.

    June usually sees an average increase of 0.8% in housing inventory, presenting specific advantages for sellers, including the optimal moving conditions previously mentioned, if they plan to buy and the high prices associated with the season.

    Historically, the average home spends about 30 days on the market in June, representing the fastest turnover in the year, alongside May. The favorable weather conditions drive prospective buyers to spend more time viewing homes, resulting in more frequent offers and decreasing the days spent on the market.

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  • Home buying demand ticks up

    Home buying demand ticks up

    The housing market is showing signs of life; contract cancellations decreased in April 2026, indicating an uptick in homebuyers’ demand. Home-sale agreements were only down by -0.1 percentage points from March on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is tied with January for the lowest level of contract cancellations since September 2024, though the level has varied by less than half a percentage point over the last year and a half.

    Contract cancellations inched down this spring as homebuyers and sellers gained a clearer sense of housing-market conditions after several years of volatility. Additionally, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined for three straight weeks in April, giving some buyers confidence in locking in a rate.

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  • Price drops become less common as market stabilizes

    Price drops become less common as market stabilizes

    According to a new analysis from Redfin, price cuts were slightly less common in April 2026, as the housing market showed signs of stabilization and rising homebuyer demand. More than 35.4% of U.S. home sellers cut their asking price in April 2026, down slightly from 35.6% a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is significantly down from a record high of 36.6% in August 2025.

    The decreasing commonality of price cuts is helping sellers regain some negotiating power. Buyers are slowly returning as the job market improves, becoming a bit more confident in their earnings. While buyers are still outnumbered by sellers, they are slightly less so than before, indicating a shift towards a balanced housing market.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.51%

    Mortgage rates average 6.51%

    On May 21, 2026, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.51%. This is up from last week, when it averaged 6.36%. In May 2025, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.86%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.51% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As rates fluctuate, aspiring buyers should remember that by shopping around for the best mortgage rate and getting multiple quotes, they can potentially save thousands.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 5.85%, up from last week when it averaged 5.71%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.01%.

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  • Housing affordability increases in Q1 2026

    Housing affordability increases in Q1 2026

    Housing affordability conditions for first-time and entry-level buyers are improving at a reasonable pace. According to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index (CHI), in Q1 of 2026 the income share needed to buy a new home dropped 4% from Q2 2025.

    Despite mortgage rate changes and overall economic uncertainty, this exhibits promising signs for housing affordability for everyday Americans. The trend continues to existing homes, where income share needed to purchase dropped from 37% in Q2 2025 to 32% in Q1 2026.

    “The U.S. data for the percentage of earnings needed to purchase a new home in the first quarter is based on a national median new home price of $403,200 and median income of $106,800, said Rose Quint, assistant vice president for survey research at NAHB. “The first quarter median new home price is down slightly from $405,300 in the fourth quarter of 2025.”

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  • Pending home sales see 1.4% increase

    Pending home sales see 1.4% increase

    According to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the spring housing market saw a slight bump in activity in April, as pending home sales increased by 1.4% since March. Pending sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest and West, but declined in the South. Year-over-year pending home sales rose in the Midwest, South and West, but declined in the Northeast.

    The report, released on May 19, 2026, follows the release of data indicating that the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index notched a 3-point gain in May.

    “Buyers are coming out with cautious optimism despite increasing economic uncertainty and a slight rise in mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Demand will easily be even higher once mortgage rates retreat to the levels they were at earlier this year.”

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  • U.S. home prices rose 0.2% in April

    U.S. home prices rose 0.2% in April

    U.S. home prices rose 0.2% month over month in April on a seasonally adjusted basis and climbed 2.1% year over year. The Redfin Home Price Index, which uses the repeat-sales pricing method to calculate seasonally adjusted changes in single-family home prices, found that, overall, improving homebuyer demand could fuel further price gains in the coming months.

    “An improving labor market is buoying homebuyer demand, which is keeping home price growth afloat,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “Even though prices are rising, buyers still have bargaining power because they’re outnumbered by sellers. If housing demand keeps climbing, sellers may regain some of that power, causing home prices to rise further.”

    In Montgomery County, Pa., home prices climbed 2.5% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in April; the biggest increase among the U.S. metropolitan areas.

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  • Housing market shows signs of stabilization

    Housing market shows signs of stabilization

    According to a recent Redfin analysis, the housing market is beginning to show signs of stabilization. Approximately 35.4% of U.S. home sellers cut their asking price in April 2026 as an incentive to attract homebuyers. This marks a slight decrease from 35.6% in March and down from a record high of 36.6% in August 2025.

    Price cuts have become slightly less common due to the housing market beginning to stabilize. Homebuyer demand is rising, which is helping sellers regain negotiating power. In response to an improving job market, homebuyers are beginning to return. Although buyers are still slightly outnumbered by sellers, which prompted sellers to lean more into incentives, they are less so than before, indicating a shift in the power balance.

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  • Southern California Housing Market Forecast

    Southern California Housing Market Forecast

    According to the California Association of REALTORS, March 2026 showed fluctuating patterns for existing, single-family homes across the state. Across Southern California, there was a 3% increase in year-over-year home sales. The median home price saw a 0.3% increase year-over-year, reaching around $880,000 in March.

    While a modest gain, it indicates that prices are no longer skyrocketing or falling significantly. Overall, it is a sign of a market that is trying to find its equilibrium.

    Looking toward the rest of the year, prices are expected to continue their trend of modest, steady growth. If economic conditions continue to stabilize, inflation remains in check and if mortgage rates begin to ease consecutively, sales volume could see an uptick.

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  • Residential construction material prices are up

    Residential construction material prices are up

    According to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI), input prices for residential construction rose in April. Various factors are raising costs around the U.S., but particularly for the residential market energy prices are at the forefront.

    The PPI for final demand rose 1.4% in April following a 0.7% increase in March. Excluding energy prices rising, building materials are also up 3.7% from a year ago. Apart from goods, services also saw a significant incline from a year ago.

    “Long-distance motor carrying service prices rose 10.4% in April and were 18.3% higher than a year ago, while local motor carrying service prices rose 1.4% in April and were 6.3% higher than a year ago,” said Jess Wade, economist and director of tax and trade policy analysis at the National Association of Homebuilders. “These are the two transportation services that are represented as inputs in the residential construction price index.

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  • Pending home sales climb to the highest level since 2023

    Pending home sales climb to the highest level since 2023

    In April, pending home sales hit the highest level since February 2023, rising 2% from the month before. This is the largest increase since March 2025. Existing home sales also climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.33 million, the highest level since February 2023.

    The median U.S. home sale price rose 2.4% year-over-year in April to $396,173, the biggest increase in 13 months, as house hunters came off the sidelines amid a stabilizing job market. The April jobs report showed an increase in hiring, which likely helped boost housing demand.

    “Homebuyer demand increased significantly at the end of March following a relatively quiet period in January and February,” said Dawn Kane, a Redfin Premier real estate agent working in both Maryland and Pennsylvania. “This is the first time post-pandemic I’ve felt the frenzy and comeback of a true spring market.”

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  • Housing market power begins to shift

    Housing market power begins to shift

    For months, the balance of power in the U.S. housing market has been shifting. Now, the negotiating power that was once held by buyers is shifting. There were an estimated 46.5% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in April 2026, down from 47.5% the month before and a high of 48.9% in December 2025. While the current housing market is still slightly leaning in favor of homebuyers, it is no longer a strengthening homebuyers market, indicating a possible shift towards balance.

    “Homebuyer demand has been dwindling for months, but finally ticked up in April thanks to a strengthening job market and declining recession risk,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “More house hunters entering the market helped narrow the gap between the number of buyers and sellers. If the number of buyers continues to grow, more homeowners may see it as an opportunity to list their homes, helping bring the market out of this deep freeze.”

    There were an estimated 1 million homebuyers in the market in April, up 2% from March; the largest increase in 13 months. Meanwhile, there were an estimated 1.5 million sellers in the market, up 1.3% month over month, marking the largest increase in a year.

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  • Senate confirms new Federal Reserve chair

    Senate confirms new Federal Reserve chair

    On May 13, 2026, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.  The 54-45 vote, mostly along party lines, marks the return of Warsh to the Fed where he previously served on the Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. Warsh will replace the current chair Jerome Powell, he has led the Federal Reserve since 2018.

    Previous to his new position, Warsh served as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He  was also a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Many housing economists predict the next action from the Fed might be a rate hike instead of a cut.

    “A Warsh-led Fed matters for housing less because of where rates are today and more because of how policy is communicated going forward,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “For housing, that likely means fewer sharp policy pivots but a longer period of rate uncertainty. Current assessment is that Warsh could lean modestly more dovish over time — anchored by productivity optimism — offers some hope that policy won’t remain overly restrictive if inflation continues to cool. However, his skepticism of an oversized balance sheet and openness to rethinking Fed communication tools could keep mortgage rates volatile even if the policy rate trends lower. The risk for housing is that affordability remains trapped: rates may ease only gradually while prices stay elevated due to limited supply. The opportunity, if Warsh succeeds in restoring Fed credibility, is a steadier long‑term financing environment that allows builders, lenders and buyers to plan with greater confidence.”

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  • Cotality releases May 2026 home price insights

    Cotality releases May 2026 home price insights

    Cotality released its May 2026 U.S. home price insights report on May 5, 2026. Despite year-over-year price growth continuing to slow, the report noted that, looking ahead to March 2027, data suggests a broader market rebound. As recent trends have shown, if mortgage rates ease, pent-up demand will likely break loose, sparking positive activity in the housing market.

    Home values increased for the second straight month, with a slight 0.3% uptick from February to March. Cotality Chief Economist Selma Hepp said in her report that the national housing market is currently caught in a crosscurrent of pent-up demand and affordability challenges.

    “The housing market is currently stuck in a holding pattern,” said Hepp. “Although housing inventories have been on the rise in many markets, broad discounting is still rare, keeping prices high. In fact, asking prices of newly listed homes continue to trend more than 2% above closing prices, suggesting that very few sellers are budging on their expectations.”

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  • Freddie Mac releases April fixed-mortgage rates

    Freddie Mac releases April fixed-mortgage rates

    According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate (FRM) averaged 6.34% in April, 16 basis points (bps) higher than March. The average 15-year rate also increased by 13 bps to 5.69%. Despite the recent increases, both the FRM and average 15-year rates remain 39 bps and 21 bps lower than a year ago, respectively.

    Mortgage rates increased last month as ceasefire negotiations remain inconclusive. At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, as inflation remains elevated alongside continued economic expansion. In other news, the Fed announced that Jerome Powell’s term as Chair will end next month and that he will remain on the Board of Governors.

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  • Rise in new home sales sparks life in housing market

    Rise in new home sales sparks life in housing market

    According to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, sales of newly built single-family homes rose 7.4% in March, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 682,000 units. The pace of new home sales is up 3.3% from 2025, marking a positive shift in housing market conditions.

    “An uptick in new home sales reflects improving demand conditions, supported by a modest pullback in mortgage rates and ongoing supply constraints in the existing home market,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens, a homebuilder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio. “Builders are gradually increasing production, but elevated construction costs and labor shortages continue to limit the pace of expansion.”

    “Looking ahead, the rise in new home sales points to a modest strengthening in residential construction activity in the near term,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis.

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  • Housing’s share of the GDP falls below 16%

    Housing’s share of the GDP falls below 16%

    According to the most recent GDP estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q1 of 2026 recorded housing’s share of the economy at 15.9%. This is reportedly the lowest share since 2019 and it is down .6% from a year ago. Residential Fixed Investment (RFI) was 3.7% of the economy, recording a $1.2 trillion seasonally adjusted annual pace. While the single-family RFI fell 8.2%, the multifamily RFI rose 1.9%.

    “Residential construction, measured by residential fixed investment, fell at its fastest pace in over three years, while household expenditures on housing services continued to remain steady,” said Jess Wade, economist and director of tax and trade policy analysis at the National Association of Homebuilders. “However, the housing share of GDP lagged during the post-Great Recession period due to underbuilding, particularly in the single-family sector.”

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  • Montana leads the nation in increasing housing supply

    Montana leads the nation in increasing housing supply

    On April 29, 2026, Montana Governor Greg Gianforte announced that a new report from the National Association of Home Builders revealed Montana is leading the nation as the state with the highest year-over-year increase in single-family home permits. Gains in the housing supply ranged from 25.5% in Montana to 0.4% in Washington.

    “In Montana, we are seeing the results of our work to increase the supply of affordable, attainable housing,” said Gianforte. “By streamlining local government permitting, homebuilders are able to more quickly respond to the demands of our growing communities.”

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.30%

    Mortgage rates average 6.30%

    On April 30, 2026, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.30%, up from last week’s average of 6.23%. In April 2025, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.76%.

    “As rates had modestly declined the last few weeks, purchase demand has accelerated with purchase applications rising to over 20% above a year ago,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “It is clear that purchase demand continues to hold up as prospective buyers react to both modestly lower rates and more inventory to choose from than the last few years.”

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  • Pending home sales report increase

    Pending home sales report increase

    According to the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), pending home sales increased by 1.5% in March, with the largest gains in the Northeast and South. The largest year-over-year increases are seen in the midwest in Kansas City, Miss. (14.9%) and Milwaukee–Waukesha, Wis. (13.5%). While the NAR reported a 1.1% year over year decrease in pending home sales, price cuts and regional job growth are a definitive factor where the market is moving.

    “Contract signings rose in March despite higher mortgage rates, pointing to pent-up housing demand,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “A greater supply of inventory will help translate that demand into more home sales.”

    “Demand sensitivity to mortgage rates is greatest among first-time buyers, particularly younger buyers,” Yun said. “As a result, boosting supply and new-home construction should focus on smaller, more affordable homes.”

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  • As mortgage rates decrease, homebuyers jump in

    As mortgage rates decrease, homebuyers jump in

    Just in time for spring buying season, mortgage rates dropped for the third straight week, boosting demand from both homeowners and homebuyers. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 6.35% from 6.42%, with points falling to 0.61 from 0.62. Last year at this time, the 30-year fixed was 55 basis points higher.

    “Mortgage rates declined last week as financial markets responded positively to the Middle East ceasefire and the lower trend in oil prices,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA senior vice president and chief economist. “Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, housing demand is being supported by a still resilient job market and homebuyers are experiencing a buyer’s market in most of the country, given the higher levels of inventory relative to last year.”

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  • AIA/Deltek ABI signals market stabilization

    AIA/Deltek ABI signals market stabilization

    Architecture firm billings held steady in March 2026, indicating market stability. The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) scored 49.8, reflecting near-equal shares of firms reporting increases and decreases. This marks the closest the index has come to the 50-point growth threshold since early 2023, offering cautious optimism.

    New project inquiries rose steadily and firm backlogs averaged 6.6 months, the highest since December 2023.

    “While billings could soon see positive growth for the first time in three years, ongoing economic and geopolitical challenges, such as the Iran conflict and labor shortages, pose significant risks to recovery,” said AIA Chief Economist, Richard Branch. “These external issues will have a significant impact on the health of construction activity in both the near and long term.”

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  • John Burns releases first quarter recap

    John Burns releases first quarter recap

    On April 17, 2026, John Burns Research & Consulting (JBREC) released its recap of the first quarter, from housing bills to looking ahead towards the rest of the year’s outlook.

    Each quarter, the company partners with Kiavi to survey approximately 400 to 500 fix-and-flip investors nationwide on market conditions, investor sentiment and their near-term outlook. JBREC expects fix-and-flip activity to grow in 2026, driven by three key factors: Price stabilization, lower financing costs and new tax deductions for renovation expenses.

    The organization expressed concern for the proposed 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which aims to make housing more affordable, but includes provisions that could make housing more expensive.

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  • Cotality reports national home price insights

    Cotality reports national home price insights

    Heading into the spring homebuying season, annual price appreciation slowed to a marginal 0.5% in February 2026. This signals that the U.S. housing market has collided with an affordability ceiling. While this price growth indicates a market at a standstill, it hides a massive internal rebalancing as different regions and property types move in opposite directions. The current housing market is defined by a sharp divide in performance, both nationally and within specific regions.

    “These diverse trends indicate an ongoing process of price discovery—one where sales and comparisons remain limited—and underscore a market that is rebalancing locally rather than correcting nationally,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

    Hepp added that the decrease in mortgage rates before the spring buying season raised hopes for a rebound in home prices and sales in 2026, but that the recent surge in rates has shifted those hopes to a broader recovery in 2026.

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  • NAHB releases population growth and housing supply data

    NAHB releases population growth and housing supply data

    According to the latest Vintage 2025 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. population growth slowed notably, with the nation expanding by just 0.5% in 2025. This was roughly half the pace of the prior year. The deceleration was primarily driven by a sharp decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, while natural change remained relatively stable.

    Population gains remained concentrated in the South and parts of the West, while many areas in the Midwest and Northeast experienced slower growth or population declines.

    At the county level, population growth slowed across much of the country. Among the nation’s 3,143 counties and the District of Columbia, the majority experienced decelerating population gains in 2025. Net Domestic Migration has become the most visible driver of county-level divergence. Population flows continue to shift away from the largest and most expensive counties toward smaller and less densely populated areas.

    Across metropolitan areas, the relationship between population growth and single-family building permits is both positive and statistically strong. With an R² of 0.6248, population change alone explains roughly 62% of the variation in permit activity, reinforcing the role of demographic growth as a primary driver of housing supply.

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