Housing Economy

Latest news in the housing economy

Latest News

  • Single-family housing starts exceed estimate

    Single-family housing starts exceed estimate

    The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released their Monthly New Residential Construction Report for August 2026. Single-family housing starts totaled 918,000 in August, up 7.6% from the revised July figure of 853,000. Privately owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000, down 2.6% from the revised July estimate.

    “New home sales continue to highlight a growing divide between the new and existing home markets,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “Homebuilders have become increasingly aggressive in using price cuts, mortgage rate buydowns, and other incentives to attract buyers, effectively shifting homes from ‘for sale’ to ‘on sale.’ As a result, new construction is offering a more affordable path to homeownership for many first-time buyers and helping sustain housing market activity despite a prolonged period of elevated mortgage rates.”

    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,394,000, 2.7% below the revised July rate.

    Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,128,000, 1.9% below the revised July estimate of 1,280,000 and 27.1% below the August 2025 rate of 1,548,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 816,000; this is 10.4% below the revised July rate of 911,000.

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  • What metro report cards reveal about homebuilding and affordability

    What metro report cards reveal about homebuilding and affordability

    While REALTOR explored the housing industry’s geographic variation at a state level earlier this year, a new analysis from the company explored the 100 largest metros in the United States. Ten metro areas received a grade in the “A” range, while each scored greater than 50 on both the affordability and homebuilding components: Des Moines-West Des Moines in Iowa, Raleigh-Cary in North Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos in Texas, Jacksonville, Fla., Oklahoma City, Palm Bay-Melbourne in Florida and Columbus, Ohio.

    REALTOR’S metro report card revealed a similar pattern to the state one. The South and Midwest are home to the strongest performers, while the West and Northeast received a lower grade. Lower housing costs relative to incomes and higher levels of new construction activity are more common in the Midwest and South, where home prices are lower, job markets are robust, land is more affordable and available. Local policies around zoning and permitting are also more permissive.

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  • Bay Area estate is August’s highest home sale

    Bay Area estate is August’s highest home sale

    An estate in Hillsborough, Calif., sold for $70 million and was the highest U.S. home sale in August, followed by a $51.5 million waterfront villa in Miami Beach, Fla. California is home to six of August’s 10 priciest sales, with four in the Bay Area and two in Orange County.

    Three of the most expensive homes sold were in Florida, with each selling at $30 million or more. A beach-compound in Hawaii sold for $38.2 million, earning it fifth place in August’s top 10 most expensive home sales.

    San Francisco’s luxury housing market has been performing well throughout 2026, as AI wealth continues to drive the housing market in the Bay Area.

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  • San Diego home sales exceed last year’s

    San Diego home sales exceed last year’s

    According to new Redfin data, San Diego homes are selling faster than they did in 2025. The typical San Diego home has been in 32 days after being listed, eight days fewer than last year. Single-family homes are selling the fastest.

    “A desirable single-family home may draw competing offers, while a condo, townhouse or other attached property may sit longer because of higher HOA fees, insurance costs or upcoming assessments,” said Redfin principal agent Rebecca Roman Stevens.

    California is among the three states leading in home sales, specifically in the luxury home market.

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  • HBGI Q2 2026 reveals geographical trends in residential construction

    HBGI Q2 2026 reveals geographical trends in residential construction

    According to the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI), announced on Sept. 1, 2026, home building trends diverged across geographies in Q2. While single-family construction declined in nearly all geographic categories, multifamily construction expanded across six of the seven categories. Activity was increasingly concentrated in large metro cores and suburban counties.

    The decrease in single-family construction in the second quarter eased as these geographies contracted at a slower pace than the previous quarter. Outlying counties in small metro areas reported growth, increasing by 0.9% following four consecutive quarterly declines. The geographic composition of single-family construction continued to shift toward smaller and less densely populated markets in Q2.

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  • Texas housing market strengthens in first half of 2026

    Texas housing market strengthens in first half of 2026

    Texas housing market activity strengthened through the first half of 2026, with closed sales outpacing last year’s levels. This suggests that underlying housing demand remains resilient despite ongoing economic headwinds and persistent affordability constraints. Sales gains have been consistent statewide, suggesting that buyers are adapting to current mortgage rates while benefiting from more stable inventory conditions and greater choice.

    Pricing trends also point to a gradually improving market environment in Texas. While home prices remain below year-ago levels, the pace of decline has continued to ease.

    As the peak home buying season comes to a close, continued improvement in inflation readings should help support market stability by reducing the likelihood of a policy rate increase.

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  • Slump continues in July AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index

    Slump continues in July AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index

    The American Institute of Architects (AIA) recently released the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index® (ABI) for July. The score is 46.6, a dip from June.

    Important to note, it reports on all architectural billings, not residential alone. Multifamily residential received a stronger score than overall at 48.4.

    AIA announced that the slump in billings is the longest in the ABI’s history, now surpassing three and a half years.

    “Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on the built environment,” said AIA Chief Economist Richard Branch. “High oil prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and may lead to even higher rates in the back half of the year. This will put additional pressure on developers and may lead to a further weakening in billings.”

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  • California scores most expensive mid-year home sale

    California scores most expensive mid-year home sale

    The most expensive U.S. home sale of July came from a Bel Air estate in California, known as Casa Encantada. The luxury home sold for $130 million, making it the second-most expensive home sale of 2026 so far.

    The other three top sales also came from Southern California: a beachfront Malibu mansion, an architectural gem in Orange County and a Beverly Hills compound. The most expensive mid-summer sales also include two townhouses in Manhattan, New York, and three oceanfront Florida estates.

    All 10 of July’s most expensive homes sold for at least $40 million.

    Luxury and custom homes continue to provide light in the midst of a struggling housing market.

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  • Rising home prices impact summer sales

    Rising home prices impact summer sales

    Due to higher mortgage rates and home prices, summer home sales have been more moderate this year. Home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops, fell 1.7% in July 2026 compared to June. However, sales reached a 0.7% increase compared to a year ago. Lawrence Yun, the National Association of REALTORS’ (NAR) chief economist, said that the year is still showing signs of improvement.

    “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said Yun.

    NAR recently reported that 80% of about 235 major metro areas it tracked continued to see home prices rise in the second quarter. Some metros even reported double-digit annual price increases of about 10%.

    “Sellers are making more price adjustments as summer progresses, and buyers are responding more selectively, but homes are still going under contract at a faster pace than last year,” said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist. “The key question for the months ahead is whether price reductions help sustain buyer engagement or signal that sellers are getting ahead of softer demand.”

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  • Mortgage demand moderates in July

    Mortgage demand moderates in July

    Recent analysis from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index shows that mortgage applications fell across all sectors in July.

    Compared to June, applications decreased 6.6% and dropped 1.5% year-over-year, the first decline in two years.

    With current 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates at 6.69%, these dips in applications are largely attributed to growing economic pressures on consumers and geopolitical uncertainty with the war in Iran.

    In July, the average loan price also fell across all categories.

    “The overall loan size decreased 2.5% to $383,600,”  wrote NAHB Forecasting and Analysis economist Catherine Koh. “The average purchase loan size fell 2.6% to $444,600, while the average refinance loan size declined 2.2% to $296,000.”

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  • Starter-home affordability improves for 8th consecutive month

    Starter-home affordability improves for 8th consecutive month

    According to a new analysis from Redfin, starter-home affordability is improving. The income needed to afford an average U.S. starter home is down 1.5% from a year ago, marking eight straight months of declines as price growth cools. Affordability for entry-level homes is improving more than the overall market; the income needed to buy the typical U.S. home is down just 0.5% because price growth remains stronger at higher price points as affluent buyers remain active.

    “We consider a home affordable if a buyer taking out a mortgage would spend no more than 30% of their income on their monthly housing payment. Starter homes are those in the 5th to 35th percentile for sale prices,” said Redfin in its analysis. “This is based on a Redfin analysis of median home sale prices, prevailing mortgage rates and property-tax payments and assumes a 15% down payment. This report focuses on June 2026, the most recent period for which data is available.”

    The analysis found that the income needed to buy a starter home is declining while earnings are rising. The typical American household earns an estimated $87,599, about $17,000 more than what is needed to buy the median-priced U.S. starter home.

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  • Federal Reserve holds rates steady for fifth consecutive month

    Federal Reserve holds rates steady for fifth consecutive month

    The Federal Reserve, during its July policy meeting, decided to hold interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%. This comes amid elevated inflation rates, which were attributed to supply shocks. This is also the Fed’s fifth consecutive hold; the last rate cut was in December 2025.

    “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate,” the Board said in a statement. “The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.”

    This is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second decision of his tenure since he took the helm in May. The National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist, Robert Dietz, discussed what this means for builders.

    “If you squint a little, this can be seen as a dovish policy message because, while the Fed can affect aggregate demand by tightening monetary policy (as the bond market appears to expect), the central bank cannot effectively address supply shocks with policy,” said Dietz. “While this should not be interpreted as taking rate hikes off the table, it is an accurate statement of current macroeconomic conditions and many analysts’ views that the Fed cannot solve energy price increases due to war or one-off tariff effects with monetary policy.

  • New home sales edge higher

    New home sales edge higher

    According to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, newly built single-family home sales rose 1.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000.

    “New home sales are gaining some momentum at the more affordable range of the market, with homes priced below $300,000 accounting for 23% of June sales, up from 16% a year earlier,” said the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, that price point is generally only achievable in markets with lower development and construction costs, particularly with respect to lower state and local regulatory costs.”

    “The pace of new home sales has remained constrained in recent months by elevated mortgage rates,” said Bill Owens, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and remodeler from Worthington, Ohio. “Builders continue to use incentives to support sales, with NAHB survey data showing that 62% of builders offered some form of incentive in June.”

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  • New single-family homes shift to smaller lots

    New single-family homes shift to smaller lots

    The long-term trend of building single-family detached homes on smaller lots appears to have stabilized. According to an analysis from the National Association of Home Builders, new single-family detached homes have steadily shifted toward smaller lots as a direct result of builders’ efforts to improve affordability and attract homebuyers.

    According to the latest Survey of Construction, the share of new homes built on smaller lots remained near record highs in 2025, following more than a decade of steadily shrinking lot sizes.

    The share of small lots remained high in 2025, with close to two-thirds of new single-family detached homes sold occupying lots under 9,000 square feet. Moreover, 38% of lots were under 7,000 square feet. These shares are just slightly below the record highs established over the last two years.

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  • June AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index gains three points

    June AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index gains three points

    The American Institute of Architects (AIA) recently released the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index® (ABI) for June; the score at 47.3 is a three-point increase from May.

    While the reading increased, a metric below 50 indicates an equal share of firms reporting decreases and increases.

    The South continues its reign as the strongest market with a reading at 49.5, despite a 0.01% decrease from May. The West trails at 45.6 with the Midwest close behind at 45.1. The Northeast dropped from 46.2 in May to 44.9 reading in June.

    “Architecture firms remain mired in one of the longest running downturns in the 30-plus year history of the ABI, which now stretches to 41 months without a majority of firms reporting billings growth,” said AIA Chief Economist, Richard Branch. “The uncertainty over the conflict in Iran along with high interest rates and significant labor shortages will continue to weigh on construction – and architect billings over the next several months.”

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  • How homebuilding shaped 250 years of U.S. history

    How homebuilding shaped 250 years of U.S. history

    As we celebrate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, one of the most pivotal aspects of the American Dream is homeownership and the homebuilding behind it.

    From the first president’s estate, Mount Vernon, to America’s first planned city, Savannah, Georgia, the history of homebuilding is woven into the fabric of the country.

    Since first studied by the U.S. Census, the homeownership rate in the U.S. in 1965 was 62.9%. There have been periodic increases and dips, while it currently sits at 65.3 in Q1 2026.

    Construction of housing rose to its peak in 2005 with over 2 million housing starts. The National Association of REALTORS estimates the country lacks 4.7 million homes.

    The future landscape of housing production is positive, with a landmark housing bill passed by both the House and the Senate.

    “NAHB applauds lawmakers for working together in a bipartisan, bicameral effort to pass historic housing legislation that will deliver real benefits for the American people,” said Bill Owens, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders. “The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act will help increase the nation’s housing supply by reducing regulatory barriers and encouraging local governments to reform zoning and land-use policies that have limited home building. By expanding homeownership and rental housing opportunities nationwide, this legislation will help ease the housing affordability crisis.”

    People behind the homebuilding industry play a key part in this country’s founding ideals.

    A celebration of the country’s 250 years of history includes homebuilding.

     

  • Utah makes strides to speed up housing development

    Utah makes strides to speed up housing development

    Leaders in Utah’s government are taking action to address the housing supply and, more importantly, a streamlined process for building new homes. Inside the Governor’s Office of Economic Development, a new Division of Housing and Community Development was formed by the Utah Legislature earlier in the year. At the helm of the new division is the Governor’s senior housing adviser, Steve Waldrip.

    “Housing is foundational to opportunity. If young families, teachers, first responders and the people who keep our economy running can’t afford to live in the communities they serve, our long-term prosperity is at risk,” said Governor Spencer Cox. “This new division will help us better align state resources, local partnerships and private-sector innovation so we can build more homes, strengthen our neighborhoods and keep the Utah dream within reach for the next generation.”

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  • Luxury home prices outpace rest of market

    Luxury home prices outpace rest of market

    Luxury home prices are rising faster than any other market, a recent report from Redfin explains. Year over year, the median U.S. luxury home sale price rose 4.7%.

    It’s a reasonable turn in the sector considering that many high-end homebuyers do not have the same affordability concerns or mortgage rate sensitivities. Therefore, the demand for luxury homes continues to rise.

    Pending sales of luxury homes gained 5.2% year over year, while pending sales for the rest of the market grew 3.6%.

    This is seen side by side in some markets, such as Tampa, where luxury home prices rose 15.6% year over year while all other homes actually saw a decrease of 0.5%.

    The influx of luxury buyers is extremely prominent in one major metro: the Bay Area. Pending sales for luxury homes in San Francisco climbed 45.9% year over year, largely attributed to the AI sector.

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  • AIA/Deltek ABI reports decline

    AIA/Deltek ABI reports decline

    The latest AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index® (ABI) reported a decrease from its April posting of 48.3, down to 44.5. This is the lowest level since the beginning of 2026. Signaling effects from general economic uncertainty in the past few months, despite cautious optimism earlier in the year.

    The South remains the strongest regional market at 49.6, with the Northeast (46.2), West (45.4) and Midwest (45.3) trailing a bit behind.

    “The uncertainty created by the Iran conflict, and substantially higher energy costs, weighed on architect billings in May,” said AIA Chief Economist, Richard Branch. “Higher interest rates, rapidly rising material costs and continued labor shortages all contributed to softer demand.”

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  • Takeaways from the current housing economy

    Takeaways from the current housing economy

    The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies released its annual State of the Nation’s Housing report, offering an overview of the current housing market. Many indicators show that housing market activity remained flat in early 2026. New home sales levels remained relatively unchanged, rental retention rates increased and new occupancies declined. Construction saw a slight decrease of 1% over the past year. Key takeaways from the report include subdued activity, weakening demand, and sidelined potential homebuyers.

    The current weakness in housing demand is a direct result of several underlying economic drivers and a decreasing employment growth rate.

    With many U.S. residents burdened by high housing costs, an increasing number of state and local governments are taking action to increase housing production.

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  • May 2026 Luxury Housing Market Report

    May 2026 Luxury Housing Market Report

    Luxury home prices across the U.S. reached $1,283,432 in May 2026, despite year-over-year declines continuing at -1.4%. The pace of annual softening has pulled back considerably from the 5%-plus drops seen in early 2025, suggesting an uptick in the national luxury housing market.

    Among tracked luxury metros, Minneapolis and Boise City, Idaho, have fully surpassed their pandemic-era peaks as of February, at 5% and 4.2%, respectively. The composition of the top 10 luxury markets was unchanged from April, with the same 10 appearing in slightly different order.

    Year over year, Naples-Marco Island, Fla., at 4.3%, and Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla., at 3.2%, were the only markets on the list with positive annual price growth.

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  • Cotality reports June U.S. home price insights

    Cotality reports June U.S. home price insights

    Cotality released the June 2026 U.S. home price insights. The report found that overall, the year-over-year home price increase remains relatively steady at 0.4%. However, the recent surge in mortgage rates has disrupted the spring homebuying season and reversed some of the affordability gains created by the lower rates seen throughout 2025.

    “Market strength suggests that some buyers remain insulated from mortgage-rate volatility and are supported by substantial home equity and stock market gains,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “Meanwhile, markets that depend more heavily on traditional mortgage financing and rate-sensitive buyers are seeing prices stay relatively flat. Overall, fewer markets posted year-over-year price declines in April than in prior months, pointing to continued stabilization across the housing market.”

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  • Housing economist comments on core inflation report

    Housing economist comments on core inflation report

    The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the April report for Personal Income and Outlays, outlining core inflation at 0.4% for the month and a 3.8%12-month inflation rate. This is an indication that on the next Fed decision on June 17, 2026 might continue March’s holding pattern.

    The BEA data does not relay one singular outcome for the housing market with a varying landscape across the U.S.

    “When inflation runs this hot, the Fed stays put and mortgage rates stay stuck in the mid-6s,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality‘s Chief Economist and regular contributor to Builder and Developer. “That freezes the national housing market in place. But a flat national number is hiding a lot behind the scenes. In fact, at a local level, many markets are hiding a complex landscape that is completely fractured from national numbers.”

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  • Home buying demand ticks up

    Home buying demand ticks up

    The housing market is showing signs of life; contract cancellations decreased in April 2026, indicating an uptick in homebuyers’ demand. Home-sale agreements were only down by -0.1 percentage points from March on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is tied with January for the lowest level of contract cancellations since September 2024, though the level has varied by less than half a percentage point over the last year and a half.

    Contract cancellations inched down this spring as homebuyers and sellers gained a clearer sense of housing-market conditions after several years of volatility. Additionally, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined for three straight weeks in April, giving some buyers confidence in locking in a rate.

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  • Price drops become less common as market stabilizes

    Price drops become less common as market stabilizes

    According to a new analysis from Redfin, price cuts were slightly less common in April 2026, as the housing market showed signs of stabilization and rising homebuyer demand. More than 35.4% of U.S. home sellers cut their asking price in April 2026, down slightly from 35.6% a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is significantly down from a record high of 36.6% in August 2025.

    The decreasing commonality of price cuts is helping sellers regain some negotiating power. Buyers are slowly returning as the job market improves, becoming a bit more confident in their earnings. While buyers are still outnumbered by sellers, they are slightly less so than before, indicating a shift towards a balanced housing market.

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  • Mortgage rates average 6.51%

    Mortgage rates average 6.51%

    On May 21, 2026, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.51%. This is up from last week, when it averaged 6.36%. In May 2025, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.86%.

    “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.51% this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “As rates fluctuate, aspiring buyers should remember that by shopping around for the best mortgage rate and getting multiple quotes, they can potentially save thousands.”

    The 15-year FRM averaged 5.85%, up from last week when it averaged 5.71%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.01%.

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  • Housing affordability increases in Q1 2026

    Housing affordability increases in Q1 2026

    Housing affordability conditions for first-time and entry-level buyers are improving at a reasonable pace. According to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index (CHI), in Q1 of 2026 the income share needed to buy a new home dropped 4% from Q2 2025.

    Despite mortgage rate changes and overall economic uncertainty, this exhibits promising signs for housing affordability for everyday Americans. The trend continues to existing homes, where income share needed to purchase dropped from 37% in Q2 2025 to 32% in Q1 2026.

    “The U.S. data for the percentage of earnings needed to purchase a new home in the first quarter is based on a national median new home price of $403,200 and median income of $106,800, said Rose Quint, assistant vice president for survey research at NAHB. “The first quarter median new home price is down slightly from $405,300 in the fourth quarter of 2025.”

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